wilkes

Is it o.k. to be confused, lol?

So, snow or no snow?

New nam model in line finally with the gfs so these games should be about over with this flip flopping.

Brand new gfs shifted it back east lol game on

Metal....The GFS even has rain in Boone!

I think the nam model will have it toward the end of it the storm looks much colder them the gfs.

Yea when each run is different u realize there is no solution lol

Models are just out to lunch on this one......GFS is having a hard time with the warm air that is coming in with the low......also the predicted track has shifted more North and this track would warm us up very rapidly to well above freezing temps......new data now points to snow at the on-set of our even early AM Monday, then Monday changing to a mix and/ or all rain thru Tuesday morning..... What Fun!......Stay Tuned!......Cannot wait to see the data from updated model runs later today!!!!

WOW!....AccuWeather has jumped really quick......4 to 8 inches of snow starting after 1 am Monday!!!!

Was that English? LOL.

Snow pack in the mountains are def going to help keep lower levels cold I want rule out all snow just yet! the gfs model precipitation is showing around 1.75- 2 inches of moisture if all snow that would be huge around 16-20 inches of wet snow no model runs that I have seen is no were close to that highest being 3-5 that I have seen. Which more likely in this set up were we will be dealing with cold all the way from ground up on the onset that will give us our best snow chances early how much moisture gets in before the warm air over rides the cold in the upper levels still a big ? But I am very confident in the switch to sleet and or just plain freezing rain. from what I have seen in the past with the cold retreating in the upper levels but staying put on the ground and the help of snow cover around us + Appalachian wedge setup has gave the foothills our ice events and this one here is shaping up to be nasty. Its to early to make a call on what the totals will be of snow, ice ,and sleet but we will get the mixed event here for sure and my gut is leaning to a bad ice event only way I see it not being to major is the sleet last longer when the heavy moisture arrives!

I think with the snow covered ground the temps will not warm as much , I'm going to say...

I have not posted anything this Winter on weather but I see a serious ice storm setting up here for the foothills If this storm provides the moisture that the southern storms this year has provided! I know the model runs are going to be flip flopping around until the day of the event but living here for 28 years this one looks bad for damaging ice for sure and we very well could be the cross hairs for A little snow at the beginning with a major ice storm. The cold ground from this weekends cold shot will set the table for anything that falls to accumulate/ or freeze!

YES Metal......Looking really good this am......I am concerned about a "Nose Of Warm Air" working its way into the mix sometime Monday evening, which could change us over to a sleet/freezing rain snow mix......Track and timing of this storm are critical..........have seen models reports of 3 to 5 inches....and 1 to 3 inches......still way to early to pin down any hard numbers.....What Fun.Stay tuned!!!!

New gfs looks good for now

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/frz.gif

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/elnino.gif

http://hosted.ap.org/dynami...0-13-42-57

Buhahahahaba