wilkes

Snow map from Raysweather.

I don't know all these terms like the real weather people, for example when does Lanie use spotty instead of scattered or isolated. However I only advise on moped travel and I have never been wrong when I issue my "travel by moped will be hazardous" warning.

I use rays site all the time, he is really good and knows how to predict the weaher in the mountains.

HERE IS WHAT RAY SAYS ABOUT THE MOUNTAINS..I LOVE RAY!

A cold front has finally edged its way to our east (blocked by Sandy in the Western Atlantic). We'll have a cooler day with clouds. Expect showers later today and tonight. Colder air arrives tonight on gusty NW winds. Light showers or drizzle tonight will change to flurries especially at higher elevations and along the western escarpment.

Monday through Wednesday is all about the details of Sandy. Sandy will come ashore early Tuesday morning in New Jersey then drift west into Maryland before slowly turning north and exiting through New York.

Shockingly colder weather and damaging winds are almost a sure bet for us. Winds will increase tonight and remain strong until Wednesday. Expect hurricane force gusts; 80 mph and higher gusts are expected at 5000'+ elevations. Make preparations today for strong winds coming.

Snow... Flurries are possible by the time we wake up Monday with flurries, snow showers, or light snow possible Monday. Most of the snow will fall Monday night and Tuesday as Sandy moves into Maryland. Snow showers will continue Tuesday night and into Wednesday. For a historical perspective, here are the biggest snow event ever recorded around Western NC...
Boone 3� Oct 22-23, 1937
Jefferson 4� Oct 23, 1923
Asheville .7 Oct 31, 1993
Banner Elk 6� Oct 29, 1908 and Oct 23-24, 1923
Sparta 3� Oct 20, 1961
Mt Leconte 3� Oct 4, 2010
Beech Mtn 3� Oct 28-29, 2008
The last two have histories only going back into the 1990s; I'm sure there were bigger snow events on the mountaintops in October prior to the record-keeping. Except for Jefferson and Sparta, all of these records will probably be broken by Wednesday. Expect moderate snows totals across most of the NW NC Mountain Region; however, 5000'-land will have blizzard conditions with a foot of snow in range. On the lower end of the spectrum will be folks east of the Blue Ridge, eastern Ashe County, and Alleghany where only light accumulations are expected. We'll post more specific forecast totals with a map later today.

The event will diminish Wednesday morning with snow showers at western mountaintops diminishing to flurries. Elsewhere morning snow flurries (some drizzle possible below 3200') will end. The rest of the day will have mostly to partly cloudy skies and chilly temperatures. It will still be blustery.

Thursday through Saturday will have increasing sunshine and cool but gradually moderating temperatures.

i'm worried more bout my mullet

HERE IS RAYS TAKE FOR WILKES: Looks to be right in line with NWS/NOAA:

The weather map is an ominous sight to the east coast. Sandy holds onto her hurricane status but is transitioning into a storm that spreads her wind field much further and wraps in cold air as well. That is where we get brought into her grips.

Today we have mid and high level clouds from Sandy but little if any rain. Winds gradually increase and will be gusty out of the Northwest. As Sandy makers her turn back to the west in her approach to the NJ coast vicinity, strong winds increase even more here Monday and Monday night. Cold air gets sucked in as moisture increases from Sandy. This brings snows to the mountains with some rain showers here that may mix with some snow Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday looks raw! Cold, windy and cloudy with occasional rain-snow showers. Mountains get moderate snows and the winds keep howling like a werewolf the day before Halloween.

Halloween itself looks a little better Wednesday with partly cloudy skies, still breezy but not as brisk and chilly but not as biting cold. Thursday and Friday we moderate nicely but remain below normal. Saturday may bring back 70 degree readings!

Well, there go the rest of the leaves!

Futurecast is showing accumulation north of McGrady Hwy 18 and north of Wilbar hwy 16.

just saw on da weather channel the snow for-cast and it was only a little bitty place right on the Tenn/nc line and they said it would be a wrap-around thing on the west facing mountain tops.

it looks like the higher mountains tops that are west facing along the nc/tenn. line and that are over 3,800 feet high are the ones who may get some snow. they are now talking like up here in deep gap and even boone we may not get much

I expect the forecasts you use to reflect my current thinking later today since we are much closer to the storm.

EURO model came in and it also has snow chances for Wilkes.

Latest GFS model is out...gives mountains few to several inches of snow...probably Winter Storm Watch Criteria...much more for NC/TN state line than say Boone...

BOONE Forecast-

Monday Night-

A chance of rain and snow before 1am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tuesday-

Snow likely before noon, then rain and snow likely between noon and 2pm, then rain likely after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. -

Tuesday Night-

Snow likely, mainly between 7pm and 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%

. Wednesday-

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Snow likely before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

http://forecast.weather.gov...07&e=0

......UP-DATE....FROM RAYS WEATHER....BOONE.....Hope you have enjoyed the last of the mild weather for awhile. A passing shower or two is possible (not a lot of rain). Sunday will be another ten degrees colder with clouds and a continued chance of a passing shower or two. Sunday night will be colder with light showers or drizzle possible changing to flurries at higher elevations and along the western escarpment.

Monday through Wednesday will be amazingly cold with damaging winds. Making preparation today for wind early next week is a very good idea. Snow? Yes. Snow showers and snow will be in the region Monday, Tuesday, and into Wednesday. The period of heaviest snow will be Monday night and Tuesday. The range of possibilities is still light to "historic for October" with a lean towards big totals with latest model trends.

heard boone my get a foot or more!!!!

Futurecast is showing around 1 inch of snow in Boone by 3 pm Monday.

Upper NJ....possible. Still seeing 100 mile shifts north and south from there though in the models. Still a few days to see even more forecast track adjustments.