How many is it that die from the flu fins, tilly?
North Carolina will be short hundreds of hospital beds and intensive care units at the state's peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is still weeks away, according to a model touted by a leading expert on Sunday.
Developed by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, the model estimates that there will be dozens of COVID-19-related deaths daily during the virus' projected peak. The model projects 79 COVID-19 deaths in North Carolina on April 22, with about 2,400 people in the state dying from the disease by Aug. 4.
North Carolina could face a shortage of hospital beds from April 17 until April 27, according to the model, which shows the need for beds for COVID-19 patients peaking at 7,774, including 1,173 intensive care unit beds.
The projections estimate the maximum need for
ventilators, which effectively breathe for patients who cannot do so on their own, to peak shortly before the needs for beds does, climbing as high as 661 on April 19 and beginning to gradually recede.
"Even with social distancing measures enacted and sustained, the peak demand for hospital services due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely going to exceed capacity substantially," the University of Washington group wrote in
a white paper describing the study. "Alongside the implementation and enforcement of social distancing measures, there is an urgent need to develop and implement plans to reduce non-COVID-19 demand for and temporarily increase capacity of health facilities."
Figuring out when the virus will peak is crucial, allowing state officials to determine when and where to place resources and whether they need to set up alternative hospital facilities.
"That's a big planning factor because that tells me how much time I have. When do I have to make sure I'm ready for max capacity? How much time do I have?" Mike Sprayberry, North Carolina's director of emergency management, said in a Saturday interview with the News & Observer.
As of early Sunday afternoon, North Carolina had more than 1,100 reported cases of COVID-19 and six reported deaths.
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Emergency management and DHHS' Office of Emergency Medical Services are working together to decide what happens if those measures are not enough to prevent hospitals from filling up, Sprayberry said. Among the options being considered as part of what is called a "medical surge plan" are adding beds to existing hospitals, temporarily re-opening recently vacated hospitals or even caring for patients in sports arenas, Sprayberry said.
Sprayberry added that he expects officials to have a better handle on when the disease will peak in North Carolina during the coming week.
